2023

OPERATIONAL:

GFS - The Global Forecast System (GFS) v16 air-sea-land-ice modeling system of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NCEP). The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. The global domain has a nominal horizontal resolution of ~13.5 km. Its vertical dimension includes 127 layers and a model top of 80 km. Forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 384 h.
Documentation: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/emc/pages/numerical_forecast_systems/gfs.php

ECMWF - The global air-sea-wave-land-ice modeling system of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The atmospheric component is based on the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) dynamical core. The global domain has a nominal horizontal resolution of ~9 km. ECMWF model forecasts are currently available at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degrees and a temporal resolution of 4x daily at 3-h intervals. Its vertical dimension includes 137 layers and a model top of 0.01 hPa. Forecasts are currently available 4x daily: 00z/12z forecasts are available out to 240 h, and 06z/18z forecasts are available out to 90 h.

HWRF - The operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) modeling system of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. HWRF is configured with three storm-centric, nested domains that have nominal horizontal resolutions of 13.5 km, 4.5 km, and 1.5 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The two innermost nests are much smaller and follow the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (POM-TC). Independent HWRF forecasts are created for up to five active tropical cyclones and invests worldwide. Forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h.

HMON - The operational Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic (HMON) model of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The dynamical core of HMON is the Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model on a B grid (NMMB). HMON is configured with three storm-centric, nested domains that have nominal horizontal resolutions of 18 km, 6 km, and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The two innermost nests are much smaller and follow the system of interest throughout the model integration. It has 71 vertical levels with the model top fixed at 50 hPa. HMON includes vortex relocation, but has no data assimilation. It has been coupled to the HYCOM ocean model for the North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, and central North Pacific hurricane basins. Forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h.

HAFS-A - The operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) configuration “A” modeling system (Version 1.0) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. HAFS is configured with two storm-centric domains with nominal horizontal resolutions of 6 km and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The moving nest is ~12° x ~12° and follows the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). HAFS-A obtains its atmospheric initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational GFS and oceanic initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS). In contrast to HAFS-B, HAFS-A initializes the vortex based on the maximum wind error of the first guess at analysis time and uses a GFS-based physics suite with TC specific modifications in PBL and surface surface schemes. This physics suite includes the GFDL microphysics parameterization and a modified eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) planetary boundary layer parameterization. Modifications are made in the EDMF-TKE PBL scheme which makes the mixing length scale near the surface in PBL consistent with that used in the surface-layer module. Surface roughness lengths for momentum and scalar are specified as a function of wind speed to match observed drag coefficients in the surface parameterization scheme. Independent HAFS-A forecasts are created for up to five active tropical cyclones and invests worldwide. HAFS-A model forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h.

HAFS-B - The operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) configuration “B” modeling system (Version 1.0) of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The atmospheric component is based on the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamical core. HAFS is configured with two storm-centric domains with nominal horizontal resolutions of 6 km and 2 km, respectively. The outermost domain is ~80° x ~80° and is approximately centered on the system of interest. The moving nest is ~12° x ~12° and follows the system of interest throughout the model integration. The atmospheric model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). HAFS-B obtains its atmospheric initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational GFS and oceanic initial/lateral boundary conditions from operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS). In contrast to HAFS-A, HAFS-B initializes the vortex slightly differently (although still based on the initial maximum wind error) and uses a unique physics suite. This physics suite includes the Thompson microphysics parameterization and a modified eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (EDMF)-turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) planetary boundary layer parameterization with modifications for hurricane environments based on advanced research. Independent HAFS-A forecasts are created for up to two active tropical cyclones and invests in NHC basins (NATL/EPAC). HAFS-B model forecasts are currently available 4x daily at 3-h intervals out to 126 h.

EXPERIMENTAL:

HAFS v1.1B - HAFS-B v1.0 (operational; see above) with modifications to the cumulus parameterization (prognostic scale awareness, see Bengstton et al. 2022), modifications to the HYCOM ocean model (to reduce excessive vertical mixing), and modifications to the tc-pbl option in the EDMF-TKE PBL scheme (see Chen et al. 2023) to improve forecasts of outer wind radii.

HAFS v1.1A - This experiment is based on the operational configuration of HAFS-A v1.0 (see above) with following upgrades and modifications:

Alt. Web Site: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/hurricane/hafsv1p1a/index.php

HAFS-Ensemble (HERC) - The Hurricane Ensembles in Real-time on the Cloud (HERC) experiment is based on the operational configuration of HAFS-A v1.0, with following modifications. Alt. Web Site:https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HAFS/HAFSEPS/index.php

GSL GFS Test (MYP8) - "Global Forecast System (v17p8; MYNN PBL)" - This global atmosphere-only configuration of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Medium-Range Weather Application uses the GFSV17 physics suite of version 10 July 2023, except (1) it replaces the GFS TKE PBL and SAS shallow cumulus schemes with the MYNN-EDMF moist-turbulent boundary layer parameterization; (2) it uses an updated version of Thompson Microphysics and is running with aerosol-awareness turned on. The cloud nucleation has been adjusted to guard against unrealistic values of water friendly and ice friendly aerosols. The MYNN/EDMF scheme is an updated version of those used operationally in the RAP and HRRR and is slated for use in the upcoming Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) configuration of the UFS Short-Range Weather Application. The global domain has a nominal horizontal resolution of ~13.5 km. Model forecasts are initialized twice a day from the operational GFS analyses and run out to 7 days using a modified version of the NOAA Environmental Modeling System global workflow.

GSL GFS Test (THP8) - "Global Forecast System (v17p8; THMP)" - This global atmosphere-only configuration of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Medium-Range Weather Application uses the GFSV17 physics suite of version 10 July 2023. THP8 uses an updated version of Thompson Microphysics that is running with aerosol-awareness turned on. The cloud nucleation has been adjusted to guard against unrealistic values of water friendly and ice friendly aerosols. This effectively allows the aerosol-aware version to behave more like the non-aerosol-aware version when aerosol concentrations deviate unrealistically from observed ranges. The global domain has a nominal horizontal resolution of ~13.5 km. Model forecasts are initialized twice a day from the operational GFS analyses and run out to 7 days using a modified version of the NOAA Environmental Modeling System global workflow.

GSL GFS Test (C3P8) - "Global Forecast System (v17p8; C3)" - This global atmosphere-only configuration of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Medium-Range Weather Application uses the GFSV17 physics suite of version 10 July 2023, except it replaces the SAS convection scheme with the C3 convection parameterization. The C3 scheme is a result of a collaborative project between GSL, PSL, and EMC. The code base is the GF scheme, but several features from the SAS scheme have been added, such as recent implementations from Lisa Bengtsson (PSL). The global domain has a nominal horizontal resolution of ~13.5 km. Model forecasts are initialized twice a day from the operational GFS analyses and run out to 7 days using a modified version of the NOAA Environmental Modeling System global workflow.